The View from the Hill on Thursday 22nd April
The skies are full of annoyed people, and on the ground we are gearing up for the debate - and today is political pundit prediction day, so I'm having a go too.
The Clegg Bubble - will either burst or be reinforced. It will not be the argument over an independent nuclear weapons system that undoes him - it will be Europe.
And yet Clegg promises us a referendum on Europe doesn't he?
The Tories will try and paint him as pro Europe and pro the Euro and this mud will stick much easier than any talk about not renewing Trident and being weak on defence. Clegg can reply with some honour about our military intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan but he is open to the suggestion of world political naivety I suppose.
Cameron has to do really well in this debate, in fact he has to shine and be declared the winner, anything less and the cracks will start to show and the call he has been making for change will be turned against him!
This debate should be a doddle for Gordon Brown because foreign affairs and the areas for discussion are things he can talk about in real terms not the abstract, being the incumbent should help him greatly.
He is not expected to win the debate so the pressure is off - it really is just about can Cameron kill Clegg.
The importance of this debate and the press coverage that follows will have an impact on votes - postal votes. They can be completed and posted in the next few days so people will be casting their votes after either a very good or very bad performance by the candidates and even though a lot could happen between now and polling day, if Clegg does well he could garner a large percentage of postal votes and this could make a big difference on the 6th/7th May.
(Still think I should work for the BBC)
So there we have it, the View on the debate and I can now just sit back and watch events unfold and my predictions come true - the main prediction being that Nick Clegg will either be crowned King or made the Jester.
“Expecting the world to treat you fairly because you are a good person is a little like expecting a bull not to attack you because you are a vegetarian”